We can all breathe a sigh of relief. The second week of January is here. Joy to the World. Rest easy at last.
It’s not that the financial scramble that was 2009 has tripped and tumbled to a close so much as it is that the endless, tedious reviews of the decade’s demise have finally grumbled to a halt.
From the moment a leaner, more accountable Santa Claus eased his way down the chimneys of the world, the daily literati have ploughed through the ten years prior like some taut, irritated obituary writer scratching for something nice to say. Day-upon-day of lingering nostalgia about this and that. Skeleton staff cobbling together their Wikipedia-based reviews of past political, social and technological upheavals whilst they wait for reinforcements who have the energy and appetite to start thinking about the future.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the lingering is more pronounced. It’s summer here and half of the work force is spending what remains of its stimulus packages at beachside cafes. But even they are not immune to the frustration of a lack of news. You can see them, lattéd to the hilt, pawing through their breakfast papers and handheld devices in search of something that is less pub-quiz and more future-tense. Little wonder that Kindle is on the rise.
The hiatus is unlikely to come to a close until well after Australia Day – a strategically positioned late-January national celebration that provides a nationwide mandate for extended leave. I remain convinced that part of the reason Australia skipped the recession was due to the fact that so few people cared about it. Why would they? They were, as their sun-bleached bumper stickers said, simply “Somewhere on the Australian Coast”.
It’s a fact that has made me a fully signed-up advocate of the Cliff Richard School of Economics too – a doctrine of fiscal management that rationalises the argument that no amount of economic meltdown can counter an equal and opposite force of all-out chirpiness. Squeeze into a camper van with the family 2 hours north of Sydney, sing “We’re All Going on a Summer Holiday”, and try not to be buoyant. It’s impossible.
So what does the next decade hold? Mores the point, what an earth is going to happen in the next 6 months? In my world, the communications and marketing world, the topic of endless debate and worry and hair-pulling and failed Eureka moments is digital. Still digital.
It’s remarkable when you think about it that all the brains in the world, all those bunkered down geniuses in the IT dens of Bangalore and Silicon Valley have yet to really – I mean really – come up with a clearly defined business model for online, community networking sites. We know their popularity. We know what they can do when it comes to shaping opinion. But do their owners – their proprietors – really know how they can make some money out of them? Sustainable business models are notable by their absence.
I’m far from the hub of intelligent digi-gurus who fret about this every day, so I’m the first to admit that my point of view lacks the technical prowess owned by many of my peers. But what is obvious is that the very popularity of sites such as Twitter is driven by the fact that its 60 million users own it. They have communitised it and that makes it all the more difficult for the founders to commercialise it. It’s purity in socialism. A Lord of the Flies environment in which the slightest whiff of counter culture would see an already fragile house of cards come tumbling down as quick as you could type 140 characters.
Last year, Biz Stone and Evan Williams, founders of Twitter, rejected a $135m takeover bid from Facebook. You have to assume they therefore have something in mind. But quite what, it’s difficult to see. To a fashion, Twitter’s charm has always been its nimbleness and spontaneity. It attracted a huge following and celebrities leapt at the chance to share the irrelevancy of their life and their point of view. But it has a split personality. Rather like its users.
For many, celebrity or otherwise, Twitter became a free source of counselling; for others, an ego stroking loveathon; and, increasingly, a roadmap to relevant sources of data that they may otherwise have been missed. Despite the recent and well-publicised departure of some of its more well versed contributors (RIP Stephen Fry) somewhere in all of that, lies the answer. Whether Twitter can ride the tide of enthusiasm until a new wave comes through is debatable. But I think the answer is, probably, yes.
Google’s recent launch of the Nexus One phone as its first proper foray into hardware is one way forward. But such an initiative would require a huge capital injection for its many wannabees to pull it off – and a far more sustainable, understandable brand than a business like Twitter currently has in place.
Following the standard search engine model of referring people to other websites is the other obvious route. Whilst there’s a sense that the boat has already sailed on that one, there remains plenty of opportunity for sites to service niche markets (just ask Apple if niche can be profitable). But it’s limited. So we keep searching.
The business model that, in my humble opinion, shows the greatest potential in 2010 is the very same one that the music industry has been getting to grips with for the past 5 years. It’s the one on which brand associations make the real money; where product and merchandising flies off the shelves, regardless of the dwindling sales of CDs; the one in which a cool t-shirt will garner twice as much cash for the band than the music they create.
For Twitter and others that means punching through the ambiguity about what they might become, or for that matter even stand for, and creating a brand that has substance and meaning. A brand that has its own DNA and is something that connects with people’s own values. Marketing gobbledygook? Maybe. But think of any product you may covet and your ferret is often tickled as much by what that brand stands for rather than what the product actually does. Anything else makes it a commodity and commodities are boring. Particularly digital commodities.
Where this will all end up, I’m grappling with as much as the next man in the marketing street. Digital is swift-esk in its trajectory, moving so fast that its twists and turns and endless deviations make it all but impossible to catch. So, for now, I’m scouring the online forums and media pages and intelligent platforms of commentary for some insight into where the likes of Twitter might be going.
Half way into January, there should soon be a lot more in the way of forward thinking rather than Once Upon a Timing. I do hope so. It’s only 4 weeks to Chinese New Year, after all.